JOHN: THE PRESIDENT GOES TO EUROPE TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL EUROPE TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL HOTSPOTS AND GROWING TERROR HOTSPOTS AND GROWING TERROR THREATS.
THREATS.
I'M JOHN HARWOOD IN FOR GWEN I'M JOHN HARWOOD IN FOR GWEN IFILL.
IFILL.
THE STRATEGY AND THE OPTIONS THE STRATEGY AND THE OPTIONS TONIGHT ON "WASHINGTON WEEK."
TONIGHT ON "WASHINGTON WEEK."
>> THOSE WHO MAKE THE MISTAKE >> THOSE WHO MAKE THE MISTAKE OF HARMING AMERICANS WILL LEARN OF HARMING AMERICANS WILL LEARN THAT WE WILL NOT FORGET AND THAT OUR REACH IS LONG AND THAT THAT OUR REACH IS LONG AND THAT JUSTICE WILL BE SERVED.
JUSTICE WILL BE SERVED.
JOHN: RESOLVE AND OUTRAGE AFTER JOHN: RESOLVE AND OUTRAGE AFTER ISLAMIC STATE EXTREMISTS ISLAMIC STATE EXTREMISTS EXECUTE A SECOND AMERICAN EXECUTE A SECOND AMERICAN JOURNALIST.
JOURNALIST.
>> THEY SHOULD KNOW THAT WE >> THEY SHOULD KNOW THAT WE WILL FOLLOW THEM TO THE GATES WILL FOLLOW THEM TO THE GATES OF HELL UNTIL THEY ARE BROUGHT OF HELL UNTIL THEY ARE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.
TO JUSTICE.
JOHN: BUT HOW WILL THE JOHN: BUT HOW WILL THE PRESIDENT TAKE THE FIGHT TO PRESIDENT TAKE THE FIGHT TO IL IL SUPPORT HE NEEDS?
SUPPORT HE NEEDS?
>> HE NEEDS TO REMIND EVERYBODY >> HE NEEDS TO REMIND EVERYBODY THAT THIS IS NOT JUST SOME THAT THIS IS NOT JUST SOME MIDDLE EASTERN DISPUTE HERE.
MIDDLE EASTERN DISPUTE HERE.
THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO KILL US HERE AT HOME.
KILL US HERE AT HOME.
JOHN: AND RUSSIA'S VLADIMIR JOHN: AND RUSSIA'S VLADIMIR PUTIN MOVES TO CONSOLIDATE PUTIN MOVES TO CONSOLIDATE PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING E.RAIN E.RAIN >> RUSSIA'S AGGRESSION AGAINST >> RUSSIA'S AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE HAS BEEN A WAKE-UP UKRAINE HAS BEEN A WAKE-UP CALL.
CALL.
JOHN: BUT IS NATO POISED TO JOHN: BUT IS NATO POISED TO STOP THE KREMLIN?
STOP THE KREMLIN?
COVERING THESE GLOBAL FLASH COVERING THESE GLOBAL FLASH POINTS, INDIRA LAKSHMANAN, POINTS, INDIRA LAKSHMANAN, FOREIGN POLICY CORRESPONDENT FOREIGN POLICY CORRESPONDENT FOR BLOOMBERG NEWS.
FOR BLOOMBERG NEWS.
PETER BAKER, CHIEF WHITE HOUSE PETER BAKER, CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT FOR "THE NEW YORK CORRESPONDENT FOR "THE NEW YORK TIMES."
TIMES."
YOCHI DREAZEN, MANAGING EDITOR YOCHI DREAZEN, MANAGING EDITOR OF FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE.
OF FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE.
AND JOHN DICKERSON, CHIEF AND JOHN DICKERSON, CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR SLATE AND POLITICAL DIRECTOR OF SLATE AND POLITICAL DIRECTOR OF CBS NEWS.
CBS NEWS.
>> AWARD-WINNING REPORTING AND >> AWARD-WINNING REPORTING AND ANALYSIS, COVERING HISTORY AS ANALYSIS, COVERING HISTORY AS IT HAPPENS, LIVE FROM OUR IT HAPPENS, LIVE FROM OUR NATION'S CAPITAL, THIS IS NATION'S CAPITAL, THIS IS "WASHINGTON WEEK WITH GWEN "WASHINGTON WEEK WITH GWEN IFILL."
ONCE AGAIN, LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, SITTING IN FOR GWEN WASHINGTON, SITTING IN FOR GWEN IFILLHIS T WEEK, JOHN HARWOOD IFILLHIS T WEEK, JOHN HARWOOD OF CNBC AND "THE NEW YORK OF CNBC AND "THE NEW YORK TIMES."
TIMES."
JOHN: GOOD EVENING.
JOHN: GOOD EVENING.
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JUST WRAPPED PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JUST WRAPPED UP A WEEK WITH NATO ALLIES UP A WEEK WITH NATO ALLIES UNDER THE BACKDROP OF TWO UNDER THE BACKDROP OF TWO CRISES BREWING ALL SUMMER.
CRISES BREWING ALL SUMMER.
RUSSIA'S EXPANSION INTO RUSSIA'S EXPANSION INTO UKRAINE, AND THE GROWING THREAT UKRAINE, AND THE GROWING THREAT FROM ISLAMIC STATE TERRORISTS FROM ISLAMIC STATE TERRORISTS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA.
IN IRAQ AND SYRIA.
EARLIER THIS WEEK, VIDEO EARLIER THIS WEEK, VIDEO EMERGED OF A SECOND EXECUTION EMERGED OF A SECOND EXECUTION OF AN AMERICAN JOURNALIST, OF AN AMERICAN JOURNALIST, STEVEN SOTLOFF, AT THE HANDS OF STEVEN SOTLOFF, AT THE HANDS OF ISIL.
ISIL.
AN ACT THAT APPEARED TO AN ACT THAT APPEARED TO STRENGTHEN THE RESOLVE OF THE STRENGTHEN THE RESOLVE OF THE U.S. AND NATO.
U.S. AND NATO.
>> HAVE NO DOUBT, WE WILL >> HAVE NO DOUBT, WE WILL CONTINUE AND I WILL CONTINUE TO CONTINUE AND I WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
AND ISIL POSES A REAL THREAT.
AND ISIL POSES A REAL THREAT.
AND I'M ENCOURAGED BY THE FACT AND I'M ENCOURAGED BY THE FACT THAT OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES THAT OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES RECOGNIZE THAT SAME THREAT.
RECOGNIZE THAT SAME THREAT.
>> OUR MESSAGE IS CLEAR -- WE >> OUR MESSAGE IS CLEAR -- WE ARE UNITED IN CONDEMNATION OF ARE UNITED IN CONDEMNATION OF HESE BARBARIC AND DES PECKABLE HESE BARBARIC AND DES PECKABLE -- DESPICABLE ACTS.
-- DESPICABLE ACTS.
THEY SHOULD BE VERY CLEAR, THEY SHOULD BE VERY CLEAR, THESE TERRORISTS.
THESE TERRORISTS.
THEIR THREATS WILL ONLY HARDEN THEIR THREATS WILL ONLY HARDEN OUR RESOLVE TO STAND UP FOR OUR OUR RESOLVE TO STAND UP FOR OUR VALUES AND DEFEAT THEM.
VALUES AND DEFEAT THEM.
JOHN: SO PETER, REALITY CHECK JOHN: SO PETER, REALITY CHECK HERE.
HERE.
THEY ALSO CAME OUT OF THIS THEY ALSO CAME OUT OF THIS MEETING AT NATO SAYING THEY HAD MEETING AT NATO SAYING THEY HAD A COALITION OF 10 COUNTRIES.
A COALITION OF 10 COUNTRIES.
IS THAT GOING TO MAKE A IS THAT GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
DIFFERENCE?
IS THAT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE IS THAT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE FIGHT TO ISIL?
FIGHT TO ISIL?
>> WELL, IT'S PRESIDENT OBAMA'S >> WELL, IT'S PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VERSION OF THE COALITION OF THE VERSION OF THE COALITION OF THE WILLING, RIGHT?
WILLING, RIGHT?
WE'RE NOT -- IN TAPPING ALL OF WE'RE NOT -- IN TAPPING ALL OF NATO WHICH HAS 28 MEMBERS AND NATO WHICH HAS 28 MEMBERS AND CAN'T AGREE ON VERY MUCH AT CAN'T AGREE ON VERY MUCH AT TIMES.
TIMES.
SO HE PULLED ASIDE IN EFFECT SO HE PULLED ASIDE IN EFFECT THE MAIN PARTNERS HE WANTS.
THE MAIN PARTNERS HE WANTS.
BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY, BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY, AUSTRALIA AND A HANDFUL OF AUSTRALIA AND A HANDFUL OF OTHERS.
OTHERS.
AND IN SOME WAY IT'S A MATTER AND IN SOME WAY IT'S A MATTER OF POLITICS AND DIPLOMACY.
OF POLITICS AND DIPLOMACY.
THERE'S SOME SPECIAL ITS THAT THERE'S SOME SPECIAL ITS THAT EACH OF THESE COUNTRIES HAS EACH OF THESE COUNTRIES HAS THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIGHT.
FIGHT.
BUT THE REALITY THE UNITED BUT THE REALITY THE UNITED STATES WILL DO THE MAIN BIT OF STATES WILL DO THE MAIN BIT OF THE FIGHTING WHEN IT COMES TO THE FIGHTING WHEN IT COMES TO AIR STRIKES.
AIR STRIKES.
AND THE SYRIAN ARMY ON THE AND THE SYRIAN ARMY ON THE GROUND WILL BE THE PROXY FORCE GROUND WILL BE THE PROXY FORCE IN EFFECT, THE SYRIAN REBELS IN EFFECT, THE SYRIAN REBELS WERE MORE MODERATE THAN ISIL WERE MORE MODERATE THAN ISIL AND A PROXY FORCE ON THE AND A PROXY FORCE ON THE GROUND.
GROUND.
THE MORE IMPORTANT ACTORS THE MORE IMPORTANT ACTORS PROBABLY W PROBABLY W JORDAN, ACTORS IN THE REGION IN JORDAN, ACTORS IN THE REGION IN TERMS OF THEIR ABILITY TO HELP TERMS OF THEIR ABILITY TO HELP CUT OFF THE FLOW OF FUNDS AND CUT OFF THE FLOW OF FUNDS AND MEN AND WEAPONS AND SO FORTH.
MEN AND WEAPONS AND SO FORTH.
ISIL.
ISIL.
SO HE HAS YET TO BRING THEM SO HE HAS YET TO BRING THEM ONBOARD BUT THAT'S THE NEXT ONBOARD BUT THAT'S THE NEXT STEP.
STEP.
>> SO YOCHI, THE PRESIDENT >> SO YOCHI, THE PRESIDENT TALKED ABOUT A BROADER TALKED ABOUT A BROADER APPROACH.
APPROACH.
OF USING ALLIES, TAKING THE OF USING ALLIES, TAKING THE FIGHT TO ISIL.
FIGHT TO ISIL.
BUT HE ALSO SAID THAT THERE BUT HE ALSO SAID THAT THERE WERE NOT GOING TO BE ANY BOOTS WERE NOT GOING TO BE ANY BOOTS ON THE GROUND.
ON THE GROUND.
REITERATING THAT POLICY.
REITERATING THAT POLICY.
SO IS THIS A CREDIBLE STRATEGY?
SO IS THIS A CREDIBLE STRATEGY?
A CREDIBLE APPROACH TO A CREDIBLE APPROACH TO DEGRADING, DESTROYING ISIL?
DEGRADING, DESTROYING ISIL?
>> HE HAD ALSO SAID THERE WOULD >> HE HAD ALSO SAID THERE WOULD BE NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN BE NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN SYRIA.
SYRIA.
WE NOW KNOW THERE IS A RESCUE WE NOW KNOW THERE IS A RESCUE ATTEMPT TO TRY TO GET BACK ATTEMPT TO TRY TO GET BACK JAMES FOLEY, A COLLEAGUE, JAMES FOLEY, A COLLEAGUE, BEFORE HE WAS MURDERED BY ISIS, BEFORE HE WAS MURDERED BY ISIS, BY ISIL.
BY ISIL.
SO THERE WERE BOOTS ON THE SO THERE WERE BOOTS ON THE GROUND AND THEY LEFT.
GROUND AND THEY LEFT.
THE MISSION FAILED THE MISSION FAILED UNFORTUNATELY.
UNFORTUNATELY.
THERE WILL BE BOOTS ON THE THERE WILL BE BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ.
GROUND IN IRAQ.
IT'S A MATTER OF TIME TO CALL IT'S A MATTER OF TIME TO CALL IN AIR STRIKES, YOU NEED IN AIR STRIKES, YOU NEED AMERICANS ON THE GROUND TO SAY AMERICANS ON THE GROUND TO SAY HIT THIS, DON'T HIT THAT.
HIT THIS, DON'T HIT THAT.
BUT THIS TALK THAT THEY USE NOW BUT THIS TALK THAT THEY USE NOW OF DESTROY ISIS OR ELIMINATE OR OF DESTROY ISIS OR ELIMINATE OR ERADICATE HAS RAMPED UP THE ERADICATE HAS RAMPED UP THE LANGUAGE AS PETER INDICATED.
LANGUAGE AS PETER INDICATED.
THE IDEA OF DESTROYING A GROUP THE IDEA OF DESTROYING A GROUP THAT HAS THIS BROAD SWATH OF THAT HAS THIS BROAD SWATH OF TERRITORY WHEN WE COULDN'T TERRITORY WHEN WE COULDN'T AND Y AL QAEDA IN IRAQ AND Y AL QAEDA IN IRAQ ISRAEL CAN'T DESTROY HAMAS AND ISRAEL CAN'T DESTROY HAMAS AND THE IDEA YOU WILL DESTROY THIS THE IDEA YOU WILL DESTROY THIS GIANT, WELL FUNDED ARMY IS GIANT, WELL FUNDED ARMY IS WISHFUL THINKING AND CAN'T WISHFUL THINKING AND CAN'T POSSIBLY HAPPEN.
POSSIBLY HAPPEN.
JOHN: INDIRA, DO YOU SEE IT THE JOHN: INDIRA, DO YOU SEE IT THE SAME WAY?
SAME WAY?
THE ADMINISTRATION SAID THAT IT THE ADMINISTRATION SAID THAT IT HAD IN EFFECT ELIMINATED AL HAD IN EFFECT ELIMINATED AL QAEDA'S ABILITY TO HIT IT IN QAEDA'S ABILITY TO HIT IT IN THE WAY THAT THEY DID IN 2001.
THE WAY THAT THEY DID IN 2001.
SO ARE THE WDS SORIGNIFICANT?
SO ARE THE WDS SORIGNIFICANT?
IS THERE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IS THERE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DISMANTLE, DEGRADE, DESTROY, DISMANTLE, DEGRADE, DESTROY, MANAGEABLE PROBLEM?
MANAGEABLE PROBLEM?
WHAT DO THOSE MEAN AND CAN YOU WHAT DO THOSE MEAN AND CAN YOU ELIMINATE A THREAT EVEN IF YOU ELIMINATE A THREAT EVEN IF YOU CAN'T ELIMINATE EVERYONE WHO CAN'T ELIMINATE EVERYONE WHO SAYS THEY WANT TO BE PART OF AN SAYS THEY WANT TO BE PART OF AN ISLAMIC STATE?
ISLAMIC STATE?
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT.
WELL, THE CHOICE OF WORDS WAS WELL, THE CHOICE OF WORDS WAS REALLY INTERESTING.
REALLY INTERESTING.
AND IN PART THE PRESIDENT AND AND IN PART THE PRESIDENT AND HIS HANDLERS WERE NO DOUBT HIS HANDLERS WERE NO DOUBT THINKING ABOUT HIM HAVING SAID THINKING ABOUT HIM HAVING SAID JUST A FEW DAYS EARLIER LAST JUST A FEW DAYS EARLIER LAST WEEK, WE DON'T HAVE A STRATEGY WEEK, WE DON'T HAVE A STRATEGY HERE.
HERE.
AND THAT PLAYED SO BADLY IN AND THAT PLAYED SO BADLY IN HAVING A FEW MONTHS AGO HAVING A FEW MONTHS AGO REFERRED TO ISIL AS -- REFERRED TO ISIL AS -- JOHN: DID THE PRESIDENT GET A JOHN: DID THE PRESIDENT GET A BAD RAP ON NO STRATEGY OR WAS BAD RAP ON NO STRATEGY OR WAS THAT -- TO YOU A STUNNING THAT -- TO YOU A STUNNING ADMISSION GIVEN WHERE WE ARE IN ADMISSION GIVEN WHERE WE ARE IN THIS PROCESS?
THIS PROCESS?
>> WELL, I THINK HE WAS >> WELL, I THINK HE WAS ADMITTING IT BUT USUALLY YOU ADMITTING IT BUT USUALLY YOU DON'T WANT THE PRESIDENT DON'T WANT THE PRESIDENT ADMITTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT ADMITTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT TO THE ENTIRE WORLD.
TO THE ENTIRE WORLD.
JOHN: AND IS IT REASONABLE THAT JOHN: AND IS IT REASONABLE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WAS AT THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WAS AT THAT PLACE?
PLACE?
THAT THEY WERE STILL WORKING ON THAT THEY WERE STILL WORKING ON WHAT THE APPROACH WAS?
WHAT THE APPROACH WAS?
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH.
AND I THINK THAT THEY ARE STILL AND I THINK THAT THEY ARE STILL TO THIS DAY WORKING ON THAT TO THIS DAY WORKING ON THAT APPROACH.
APPROACH.
WHAT HE TRIED TO SAY VERY WHAT HE TRIED TO SAY VERY CLEARLY TODAY WAS WE'RE NOT CLEARLY TODAY WAS WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE CONTAINING THEM.
GOING TO BE CONTAINING THEM.
OUR AIM IS NOT TO JUST LIMIT OUR AIM IS NOT TO JUST LIMIT THEM IN IRAQ OR A SMALL PART OF THEM IN IRAQ OR A SMALL PART OF IRAQ AND SYRIA.
IRAQ AND SYRIA.
WE ACTUALLY WANT TO DESTROY WE ACTUALLY WANT TO DESTROY THEM.
THEM.
AND SECRETARY OF STATE AND SECRETARY OF STATE KERRYICALLY TOOK IT FURTHER.
KERRYICALLY TOOK IT FURTHER.
HE AFTERWARD SAID THIS ISN'T A HE AFTERWARD SAID THIS ISN'T A SHORT BATTLE.
SHORT BATTLE.
WE DO THINK WE CAN WIN IT BUT WE DO THINK WE CAN WIN IT BUT IT MIGHT TAKE ONE YEAR, TWO IT MIGHT TAKE ONE YEAR, TWO YEARS, THREE YEARS.
YEARS, THREE YEARS.
SO THAT IS THE MORE REALISTIC SO THAT IS THE MORE REALISTIC APPROACH.
APPROACH.
TO LOOK AT IT AS A LONG GAME.
TO LOOK AT IT AS A LONG GAME.
THESE TERRORISTS ARE RICH -- THESE TERRORISTS ARE RICH -- JOHN: YOCHI SAID DESTROY IS A JOHN: YOCHI SAID DESTROY IS A FANTASY.
FANTASY.
SO IS CONTAIN REALLY THE MORE SO IS CONTAIN REALLY THE MORE REALISTIC AND ACCURATE WAY TO REALISTIC AND ACCURATE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THIS?
THINK ABOUT THIS?
>> WELL, I ACTUALLY THINK THAT >> WELL, I ACTUALLY THINK THAT THEY'RE TRYING TO DO MORE THAN THEY'RE TRYING TO DO MORE THAN JUST CONTAIN THEM.
JUST CONTAIN THEM.
AND LET ME TALK ABOUT WHAT I AND LET ME TALK ABOUT WHAT I MEAN HERE.
MEAN HERE.
THE MULTILAYERED SORT OF MENU THE MULTILAYERED SORT OF MENU OF OPTIONS.
OF OPTIONS.
IN TRYING TO BRING TOGETHER IN TRYING TO BRING TOGETHER THIS COALITION THAT PETER WAS THIS COALITION THAT PETER WAS TALKING ABOUT, I THINK THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT, I THINK THEY'RE WANTING DIFFERENT THINGS FROM WANTING DIFFERENT THINGS FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
AND MY COLLEAGUE, TERRY ATLAS, AND MY COLLEAGUE, TERRY ATLAS, REFERRED TO THIS AS THE POT REFERRED TO THIS AS THE POT LUCK APPROACH AND I LOVE THAT LUCK APPROACH AND I LOVE THAT ANALOGY.
ANALOGY.
BECAUSE IT'S THE NOTION THAT BECAUSE IT'S THE NOTION THAT EVERYBODY ELSE BRINGS EVERYBODY ELSE BRINGS SOMETHING, EVERYONE BRINGS SOMETHING, EVERYONE BRINGS SOMETHING TO THE TABLE AND YOU SOMETHING TO THE TABLE AND YOU MAY NOT LIKE THE DISH THAT MAY NOT LIKE THE DISH THAT EVERYBODY BRINGS.
EVERYBODY BRINGS.
SO FROM THE SAUDIS, BECAUSE THE SO FROM THE SAUDIS, BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT MADE EX-PLIFT THAT HE PRESIDENT MADE EX-PLIFT THAT HE WANTS MIDDLE EAST PARTNERS TO WANTS MIDDLE EAST PARTNERS TO COME ON AS WELL, WE'RE GOING TO COME ON AS WELL, WE'RE GOING TO WANT MONEY.
WANT MONEY.
WE'RE GOING TO WANT WE'RE GOING TO WANT INTELLIGENCE FROM THE INTELLIGENCE FROM THE JORDANIANS, FROM THE TURKS WHO JORDANIANS, FROM THE TURKS WHO ARE PART OF THIS 10-MEMBER ARE PART OF THIS 10-MEMBER COALITION ALREADY AND ARE PART COALITION ALREADY AND ARE PART OF NATO, WE'RE GOING TO WANT OF NATO, WE'RE GOING TO WANT THEM TO CUT OFF THE BORDER FLOW THEM TO CUT OFF THE BORDER FLOW OF JIHADISTS GOING BACK AND OF JIHADISTS GOING BACK AND FORTH.
FORTH.
I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DO A I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DO A NUMBER OF THINGS.
NUMBER OF THINGS.
AND IT'S NOT JUST KINETIC ON AND IT'S NOT JUST KINETIC ON HE GROUND AND FIGHTING THROUGH HE GROUND AND FIGHTING THROUGH PROXIES.
PROXIES.
WHICH I THINK IS A REALLY WHICH I THINK IS A REALLY DIFFICULT THING.
DIFFICULT THING.
LIKE HOW CAN WE TRUST THE LIKE HOW CAN WE TRUST THE VETTED PROXIES WHO ARE THE VETTED PROXIES WHO ARE THE TRULY MODERATE REBELS?
TRULY MODERATE REBELS?
AND THEY'RE NOT VERY GOOD AND THEY'RE NOT VERY GOOD FIGHTERS APPARENTLY OR ISIL AND FIGHTERS APPARENTLY OR ISIL AND AL IN US ARE A WOULDN'T BE IN AL IN US ARE A WOULDN'T BE IN -- AL-NUSSRAH WOULDN'T BEN I -- AL-NUSSRAH WOULDN'T BEN I CONTROL.
CONTROL.
SO EVERYONE WILL TRY TO DO A SO EVERYONE WILL TRY TO DO A LITTLE BIT.
LITTLE BIT.
AND I DO THINK THAT WHILE AND I DO THINK THAT WHILE DESTROYING IT ENTIRELY MAY BE DESTROYING IT ENTIRELY MAY BE UNREALISTIC AS YOCHI SAID, I UNREALISTIC AS YOCHI SAID, I THINK THAT IT'S ENTIRELY THINK THAT IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THEY CAN DO MORE THAN POSSIBLE THEY CAN DO MORE THAN CONTAIN THEM.
CONTAIN THEM.
AND HE'S -- AND LOOK AT WHAT AND HE'S -- AND LOOK AT WHAT HE'S DONE WITH AL SHABAB, HE'S DONE WITH AL SHABAB, KILLING THE LEADER THERE IN KILLING THE LEADER THERE IN SOMALIA.
SOMALIA.
SO THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO TAKE SO THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO TAKE OUT LEADERS.
OUT LEADERS.
AND THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO DO AND THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO DO IT STEP BY STEP.
IT STEP BY STEP.
JOHN: JOHN DICKERSON, AS THE JOHN: JOHN DICKERSON, AS THE LATE GREAT JOAN RIVERS WOULD LATE GREAT JOAN RIVERS WOULD SAY, CAN WE TALK ABOUT THE SAY, CAN WE TALK ABOUT THE POLITICS OF THIS?
POLITICS OF THIS?
I WAS IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS I WAS IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEK FOR A DEBATE AMONG SENATE WEEK FOR A DEBATE AMONG SENATE CANDIDATES.
CANDIDATES.
AND BHOT THE REPUBLICAN AND AND BHOT THE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT STRONGLY CRITICED IZ DEMOCRAT STRONGLY CRITICED IZ THE PRESIDENT FOR HIS APPROACH.
THE PRESIDENT FOR HIS APPROACH.
SHOULD HAVE ARMED THE SYRIAN SHOULD HAVE ARMED THE SYRIAN REBELS.
REBELS.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ON SHOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ON TOP OF THIS.
TOP OF THIS.
DOESN'T HAVE A STRATEGY.
DOESN'T HAVE A STRATEGY.
BUT WHEN THEY WERE PRESSED BY BUT WHEN THEY WERE PRESSED BY NORAH O'DONNELL WHO WAS NORAH O'DONNELL WHO WAS MODERATING SO DO YOU SUPPORT MODERATING SO DO YOU SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION IN SYRIA, THEY MILITARY ACTION IN SYRIA, THEY WERE VERY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THAT.
WERE VERY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THAT.
SO I GUESS MY QUESTION IS DOES SO I GUESS MY QUESTION IS DOES THE WHITE HOUSE WANT A VOTE THE WHITE HOUSE WANT A VOTE FROM CONGRESS?
FROM CONGRESS?
DO MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WANT TO DO MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WANT TO VOTE AND WILL THEY GIVE HIM A VOTE AND WILL THEY GIVE HIM A MAJORITY?
MAJORITY?
>> LET'S UNPACK SOME OF THIS.
>> LET'S UNPACK SOME OF THIS.
WE'VE JUST HAD A PRETTY NUANCED WE'VE JUST HAD A PRETTY NUANCED CONVERSATION ABOUT WHAT'S CONVERSATION ABOUT WHAT'S POSSIBLE AND WHAT'S NOT POSSIBLE AND WHAT'S NOT POSSIBLE.
POSSIBLE.
BUT YOU MENTIONED BOTH DEMOCRAT BUT YOU MENTIONED BOTH DEMOCRAT AND THE REPUBLICAN IN THAT AND THE REPUBLICAN IN THAT DEBATE SAID YES, IT'S OBVIOUS DEBATE SAID YES, IT'S OBVIOUS THE PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE ARMED THE PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE ARMED THE MODERATE SYRIAN FORCES.
THE MODERATE SYRIAN FORCES.
WELL, IT WASN'T SO OBVIOUS AT WELL, IT WASN'T SO OBVIOUS AT THE TIME.
THE TIME.
BUT IN -- TAKING -- THAT'S NOW BUT IN -- TAKING -- THAT'S NOW CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AMONG ALL CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AMONG ALL THESE CANDIDATES.
THESE CANDIDATES.
WHICH MAKES IT SEEM LIKE -- WHICH MAKES IT SEEM LIKE -- JOHN: INCLUDING HILLARY JOHN: INCLUDING HILLARY CLINTON.
CLINTON.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
INDEED.
INDEED.
KAY HAGEN, THE DEMOCRAT, WAS KAY HAGEN, THE DEMOCRAT, WAS TAKING THE HILLARY CLINTON TAKING THE HILLARY CLINTON POSITION AND IT -- THE OPTIONS POSITION AND IT -- THE OPTIONS ARE YET SIMPLE.
ARE YET SIMPLE.
YOU DO A AND B AND IT WILL ALL YOU DO A AND B AND IT WILL ALL BE SOLVED.
BE SOLVED.
WELL, THAT'S NOT THE CASE AT WELL, THAT'S NOT THE CASE AT ALL.
ALL.
BUT THAT WAS THE WAY THEY WERE BUT THAT WAS THE WAY THEY WERE FRAMING IT.
FRAMING IT.
AND WHEN THE QUESTION WAS ASKED AND WHEN THE QUESTION WAS ASKED WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
THE DEMOCRAT KAY HAGEN SAID THE DEMOCRAT KAY HAGEN SAID THERE'S GOT TO BE ACTION IN THERE'S GOT TO BE ACTION IN CONGRESS.
CONGRESS.
BUT I CALLED AROUND TODAY.
BUT I CALLED AROUND TODAY.
TO THE DEMOCRATS.
TO THE DEMOCRATS.
IS THERE A REAL MOVE AND DO IS THERE A REAL MOVE AND DO THEY WANT A VOTE HERE?
THEY WANT A VOTE HERE?
NO.
NO.
BUT YOU HAVE CANDIDATES SAYING BUT YOU HAVE CANDIDATES SAYING IN DEBATES THAT THEY WANT TO IN DEBATES THAT THEY WANT TO HAVE A VOTE ON ACTION AGAINST HAVE A VOTE ON ACTION AGAINST ISIL.
ISIL.
JOHN: AND THEY'RE ONLY GOING TO JOHN: AND THEY'RE ONLY GOING TO BE IN SESSION FOR TWO WEEKS.
BE IN SESSION FOR TWO WEEKS.
>> THEY GET TO SAY THEY WANT >> THEY GET TO SAY THEY WANT THE ACTION AND WE DIDN'T HAVE THE ACTION AND WE DIDN'T HAVE THE TIME.
THE TIME.
SO THERE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE SO THERE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE'S GOING TO BE ANY ACTION THERE'S GOING TO BE ANY ACTION ON THE HILL.
ON THE HILL.
AND THE WHITE HOUSE ISN'T AND THE WHITE HOUSE ISN'T ASKING FOR IT YET.
ASKING FOR IT YET.
JOHN: IS THAT WHAT THE WHITE JOHN: IS THAT WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS?
HOUSE WANTS?
DO THEY THINK THAT THEY RIGHT DO THEY THINK THAT THEY RIGHT NOW HAVE THE LEGAL AUTHORITY TO NOW HAVE THE LEGAL AUTHORITY TO SEND AIR STRIKES INTO SYRIA AND SEND AIR STRIKES INTO SYRIA AND ARE THEY JUST FINE WITH DOING ARE THEY JUST FINE WITH DOING THAT WITHOUT THE BACK AND FORTH THAT WITHOUT THE BACK AND FORTH WITH CONGRESS WHICH TURNED OUT WITH CONGRESS WHICH TURNED OUT VERY BADLY FOR THEM WHEN THEY VERY BADLY FOR THEM WHEN THEY CONSIDERED ACTION IN SYRIA CONSIDERED ACTION IN SYRIA EARLIER?
EARLIER?
>> A YEAR AGO, YES.
>> A YEAR AGO, YES.
THE LAWYERS ARE CHURNING AND THE LAWYERS ARE CHURNING AND CHURNING AND CHURNING ON THIS CHURNING AND CHURNING ON THIS VERY QUESTION AS WE SPEAK VERY QUESTION AS WE SPEAK PROBABLY.
PROBABLY.
THEY DO THINK THAT THEY HAVE THEY DO THINK THAT THEY HAVE THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S COMMANDER IN CHIEF PRESIDENT'S COMMANDER IN CHIEF POWERS AGAINST THE THREAT LIKE POWERS AGAINST THE THREAT LIKE ISIL TO GO AHEAD AND LAUNCH AIR ISIL TO GO AHEAD AND LAUNCH AIR STRIKES SHOULD THEY NEED TO.
STRIKES SHOULD THEY NEED TO.
THEY ALSO STILL HAVE THE THEY ALSO STILL HAVE THE AUTHORIZATION TO USE FORCE FROM AUTHORIZATION TO USE FORCE FROM 2001.
2001.
THEY MIGHT ARGUE WHICH WAS THEY MIGHT ARGUE WHICH WAS AGAINST NOT JUST AL QAEDA BUT AGAINST NOT JUST AL QAEDA BUT AL QAEDA-LIKE GROUPS AND THEY AL QAEDA-LIKE GROUPS AND THEY MIGHT MAKE THAT ARGUMENT.
MIGHT MAKE THAT ARGUMENT.
YOU'RE RIGHT AND PROBABLY CAN'T YOU'RE RIGHT AND PROBABLY CAN'T BE A VOTE IN CONGRESS BEFORE BE A VOTE IN CONGRESS BEFORE THE ELECTION.
THE ELECTION.
BUT I THINK THEY'RE STILL PART BUT I THINK THEY'RE STILL PART OF THE WHITE HOUSE.
OF THE WHITE HOUSE.
AND SOME PEOPLE IN THE WHITE AND SOME PEOPLE IN THE WHITE HOUSE THINK THEY WANT A SHOW OF HOUSE THINK THEY WANT A SHOW OF HANDS.
HANDS.
FROM CONGRESS.
FROM CONGRESS.
AND SOME BUY-IN.
AND SOME BUY-IN.
AND MUCH THE SAME ARGUMENT THEY AND MUCH THE SAME ARGUMENT THEY HAD A YEAR AGO WITH THE IDEA OF HAD A YEAR AGO WITH THE IDEA OF A RETALIATORY STRIKE AGAINST A RETALIATORY STRIKE AGAINST BASHAR AL-ASSAD'S GOVERNMENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD'S GOVERNMENT FOR USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
FOR USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
AND IT MIGHT BE SOMETHING AND IT MIGHT BE SOMETHING SIMPLE AS A VOTE ON FUNDING T SIMPLE AS A VOTE ON FUNDING T MAY BE -- MAY BE A VOTE IN -- MAY BE -- MAY BE A VOTE IN -- WE SUPPORT THE TROOPS.
WE SUPPORT THE TROOPS.
IT MAY BE SOME VERSION OTHER IT MAY BE SOME VERSION OTHER THAN AN AUTHORIZATION KIND OF THAN AN AUTHORIZATION KIND OF VOTE.
VOTE.
BUT THEY DO WANT TO GET SOME BUT THEY DO WANT TO GET SOME BUY-IN IF THEY CAN HELP IT BUY-IN IF THEY CAN HELP IT PERHAPS AFTER THE ELECTION FROM PERHAPS AFTER THE ELECTION FROM THE LAWMAKERS AND NOT ON A THE LAWMAKERS AND NOT ON A LIMB.
LIMB.
JOHN: YOCHI, IS IT YOUR VIEW JOHN: YOCHI, IS IT YOUR VIEW THAT WHETHER OR NOT THE GOAL IS THAT WHETHER OR NOT THE GOAL IS DESTROY, WHICH YOU DON'T THINK DESTROY, WHICH YOU DON'T THINK IS REALISTIC, BUT IT'S IS REALISTIC, BUT IT'S SOMETHING ELSE, TO HURT THEM SOMETHING ELSE, TO HURT THEM VERY BADLY, CAN THAT BE DONE VERY BADLY, CAN THAT BE DONE WITHOUT AMERICAN TROOPS GOING WITHOUT AMERICAN TROOPS GOING INTO SYRIA?
INTO SYRIA?
IS THERE -- ARE THERE MUCH IS THERE -- ARE THERE MUCH TOOLS BETWEEN ALLIES, MODERATE TOOLS BETWEEN ALLIES, MODERATE REBELS, IN SYRIA, ALREADY AND REBELS, IN SYRIA, ALREADY AND AIR STRIKES THAT IT'S NOT AIR STRIKES THAT IT'S NOT NECESSARY OR IS IT?
NECESSARY OR IS IT?
>> I THINK IN THE OLD CLICHE OF >> I THINK IN THE OLD CLICHE OF HAVING TO HAVE THE DEVIL IN THE HAVING TO HAVE THE DEVIL IN THE DETAILS, IT DEPENDS ON HOW YOU DETAILS, IT DEPENDS ON HOW YOU DEFINE TROOPS IN SYRIA.
DEFINE TROOPS IN SYRIA.
IF YOU'RE DESCRIBING SMALL IF YOU'RE DESCRIBING SMALL NUMBERS.
NUMBERS.
SPECIAL OPERATIONS TROOPS WHO SPECIAL OPERATIONS TROOPS WHO ARE THERE FOR A FEW HOURS AS IN ARE THERE FOR A FEW HOURS AS IN THE JAMES FOLEY RAID.
THE JAMES FOLEY RAID.
IT CAN'T BE DONE WITHOUT THAT.
IT CAN'T BE DONE WITHOUT THAT.
IF YOU'RE DESCRIBING SMALL IF YOU'RE DESCRIBING SMALL NUMBERS WHO ARE THERE TO TRAIN NUMBERS WHO ARE THERE TO TRAIN THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY IT CAN'T THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY IT CAN'T BE DONE WITHOUT THAT.
BE DONE WITHOUT THAT.
IF YOU'RE TALKING A FULL-ON IF YOU'RE TALKING A FULL-ON INVASION OF A FEW HUNDRED OR INVASION OF A FEW HUNDRED OR THOUSAND IT'S NOT PLAUSIBLE AND THOUSAND IT'S NOT PLAUSIBLE AND WOULDN'T HELP.
WOULDN'T HELP.
BUT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING BUT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING COMMENT LAST WEEK.
COMMENT LAST WEEK.
GENERAL MARTIN DEMPSEY, THE GENERAL MARTIN DEMPSEY, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE CHOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN OF THE CHOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF ASKED ABOUT ISIS IN OF STAFF ASKED ABOUT ISIS IN IRAQ SAID YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING IRAQ SAID YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING THERE WHILE THEY HAVE HAVENS IN THERE WHILE THEY HAVE HAVENS IN SYRIA.
SYRIA.
AND THE CLEAR IMPLICATION FROM AND THE CLEAR IMPLICATION FROM THE PENTAGON IS WE SEE THE NEED THE PENTAGON IS WE SEE THE NEED TO HIT SYRIA.
TO HIT SYRIA.
NOT THAT THEY WANT TO BUT THEY NOT THAT THEY WANT TO BUT THEY SEE THE NEED TO DO IT.
SEE THE NEED TO DO IT.
SO IF YOU'RE THE WHITE HOUSE SO IF YOU'RE THE WHITE HOUSE THE QUESTION IS, HOW FAR ARE THE QUESTION IS, HOW FAR ARE YOU WILLING TO GO?
YOU WILLING TO GO?
IF THE MILITARY SAYS HIT SYRIA, IF THE MILITARY SAYS HIT SYRIA, DO YOU HIT SYRIA?
DO YOU HIT SYRIA?
JOHN: CERTAINLY THERE'S A JOHN: CERTAINLY THERE'S A STRONG EMOTIONAL IMPERATIVE STRONG EMOTIONAL IMPERATIVE WITHIN THE UNITED STATES AFTER WITHIN THE UNITED STATES AFTER THESE VIDEOS TO HIT SYRIA.
THESE VIDEOS TO HIT SYRIA.
BUT GENERAL BARRY MCCAFFREY BUT GENERAL BARRY MCCAFFREY EARLIER TODAY SAID NO GOOD WILL EARLIER TODAY SAID NO GOOD WILL COME OF U.S.
FORCES GOING BACK COME OF U.S.
FORCES GOING BACK IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY INTO IRAQ IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY INTO IRAQ OR SYRIA.
OR SYRIA.
WE WON'T KNOW HOW TO GET OUT WE WON'T KNOW HOW TO GET OUT UNLESS WE WANT TO OCCUPY FOR 20 UNLESS WE WANT TO OCCUPY FOR 20 YEARS.
YEARS.
IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK.
IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK.
IS THAT A CONSENSUS VIEW?
IS THAT A CONSENSUS VIEW?
>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.
>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.
I THINK EVEN THOUGH THE POLLING I THINK EVEN THOUGH THE POLLING IS SHOWING THAT THE AMERICAN IS SHOWING THAT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS GETTING MORE AND MORE PUBLIC IS GETTING MORE AND MORE CONCERNED ABOUT ISIL, JUST AS CONCERNED ABOUT ISIL, JUST AS THEY ARE GETTING MORE AND MORE THEY ARE GETTING MORE AND MORE CONCERNED ABOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN CONCERNED ABOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN AND THE UKRAINE SITUATION, AS AND THE UKRAINE SITUATION, AS TYPE GOES BY, I STILL DON'T TYPE GOES BY, I STILL DON'T THINK THERE'S SUPPORT FOR THINK THERE'S SUPPORT FOR AMERICAN BOOTS ON THE GROUND.
AMERICAN BOOTS ON THE GROUND.
AND I THINK IT'S VERY UNLIKELY AND I THINK IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THE PRESIDENT WOULD DO THAT IN THE PRESIDENT WOULD DO THAT IN ANY KIND OF REAL NUMBERS.
ANY KIND OF REAL NUMBERS.
I THINK WHAT WE ARE TALKING I THINK WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT, THOUGH, KEY TO THIS ABOUT, THOUGH, KEY TO THIS STRATEGY, IS PROXIES.
STRATEGY, IS PROXIES.
THAT IS EVERYTHING.
THAT IS EVERYTHING.
AND YOU CANNOT DEFEAT ISIL IF AND YOU CANNOT DEFEAT ISIL IF YOU'RE JUST -- YOU'RE JUST -- JOHN: THAT WOULD SEEM TO BE JOHN: THAT WOULD SEEM TO BE RUSSIA'S STRATEGY IN UKRAINE.
RUSSIA'S STRATEGY IN UKRAINE.
>> YOU GOT THAT RIGHT.
>> YOU GOT THAT RIGHT.
YOU CANNOT JUST DEFEAT ISIL IN YOU CANNOT JUST DEFEAT ISIL IN IRAQ.
IRAQ.
BY USING THE KURDISH FORCES BY USING THE KURDISH FORCES TRAINING THE IRAQI MILITARY.
TRAINING THE IRAQI MILITARY.
THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.
THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.
BECAUSE ALTHOUGH THERE'S BECAUSE ALTHOUGH THERE'S TECHNICALLY A BORDER ON THE MAP TECHNICALLY A BORDER ON THE MAP BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA, ISIL IS BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA, ISIL IS NOT RESPECTING THAT BORDER.
NOT RESPECTING THAT BORDER.
TO THEM IT'S JUST A DESERT TO THEM IT'S JUST A DESERT ACROSS WHICH THEY MOVE THEIR ACROSS WHICH THEY MOVE THEIR MEN AND THEIR TROOPS.
MEN AND THEIR TROOPS.
AND THEY DON'T OBEY ANY LAWS AND THEY DON'T OBEY ANY LAWS THAT WE THINK OF.
THAT WE THINK OF.
AND SO THE ONLY WAY TO REALLY AND SO THE ONLY WAY TO REALLY DESTROY THEM WOULD BE TO GO DESTROY THEM WOULD BE TO GO AFTER THEM IN SYRIA, TOO.
AFTER THEM IN SYRIA, TOO.
YOU CAN'T JUST GO AFTER THEM YOU CAN'T JUST GO AFTER THEM WITH AIR STRIKES.
WITH AIR STRIKES.
THIS IS WHERE IT COMES IN.
THIS IS WHERE IT COMES IN.
WE NEED A LOCAL PROXY.
WE NEED A LOCAL PROXY.
AND THIS IS WHERE I THINK IT AND THIS IS WHERE I THINK IT GETS MOST COMPLICATED.
GETS MOST COMPLICATED.
BECAUSE THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY, BECAUSE THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY, ALTHOUGH THEY'RE THE ONES WHO ALTHOUGH THEY'RE THE ONES WHO WERE VETTED ARE NOT GREAT WERE VETTED ARE NOT GREAT FIGHTERS AND AL-NUSSRAH ARE FIGHTERS AND AL-NUSSRAH ARE GOOD FIGHTERS AND HATE ISIL GOOD FIGHTERS AND HATE ISIL THEY'RE AL QAEDA AFFILIATES.
THEY'RE AL QAEDA AFFILIATES.
WE CAN'T HAVE STRANGE WE CAN'T HAVE STRANGE AND LOWS WITH AL-NUSSRAH AND LOWS WITH AL-NUSSRAH ASSAD HIMSELF.
ASSAD HIMSELF.
ANYTHING WE DO TO DESTROY ICE ANYTHING WE DO TO DESTROY ICE LIKELY HELP OTHER GROUPS AND A LIKELY HELP OTHER GROUPS AND A REGIME THAT WE DON'T LIKE SO IT REGIME THAT WE DON'T LIKE SO IT GETS COMPLICATED.
GETS COMPLICATED.
JOHN: THE OTHER THING THAT JOHN: THE OTHER THING THAT BARRY MCCAFFREY SAID IRAQ WILL BARRY MCCAFFREY SAID IRAQ WILL NEVER BE PUT BACK TOGETHER.
NEVER BE PUT BACK TOGETHER.
IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ONE IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ONE COUNTRY ANYMORE.
COUNTRY ANYMORE.
IS THAT IN FACT WHAT WE'RE IS THAT IN FACT WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT?
LOOKING AT?
AND THAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO AND THAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO REORIENT THEIR EXPECTATIONS TO REORIENT THEIR EXPECTATIONS TO THE FACT THAT THE BOUNDARIES THE FACT THAT THE BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE EXISTED FOR DECADES THAT HAVE EXISTED FOR DECADES IN THAT REGION ARE GOING TO IN THAT REGION ARE GOING TO CHANGE, MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY?
CHANGE, MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY?
>> I AGREE WITH HIM COMPLETELY.
>> I AGREE WITH HIM COMPLETELY.
I LIVED IN IRAQ FOR CLOSE TO I LIVED IN IRAQ FOR CLOSE TO FOUR YEARS.
FOUR YEARS.
AND THE KURDISH REGIONS OF RAG AND THE KURDISH REGIONS OF RAG HAVE BEEN INDEPENDENT FOR SOME HAVE BEEN INDEPENDENT FOR SOME TIME.
TIME.
A LOT OF KURDS YOU MEET DON'T A LOT OF KURDS YOU MEET DON'T SPEAK ARABIC AND NEVER GONE SPEAK ARABIC AND NEVER GONE INTO ARAB IRAQ.
INTO ARAB IRAQ.
THEY TOOK KIRKUK WHICH THEY THEY TOOK KIRKUK WHICH THEY WANTED FOR DECADES IN A MATTER WANTED FOR DECADES IN A MATTER OF HOURS AND THE IRAQI ARMY OF HOURS AND THE IRAQI ARMY FLED AND WILL NEVER GET IT FLED AND WILL NEVER GET IT BACK.
BACK.
THE ARAB IRAQ MAY BE COBBLED THE ARAB IRAQ MAY BE COBBLED TOGETHER AND MAINTAINED IN SOME TOGETHER AND MAINTAINED IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM BUT A SHIITE IN SHAPE OR FORM BUT A SHIITE IN THE SOUTH AND SUNNI IRAQ IN THE THE SOUTH AND SUNNI IRAQ IN THE MIDDLE AND MAYBE ICE SIS AND MIDDLE AND MAYBE ICE SIS AND THE KURDICISH REGIONS OF IRAQ THE KURDICISH REGIONS OF IRAQ ARE GONE AND I THINK EXACTLY ARE GONE AND I THINK EXACTLY RIGHT.
RIGHT.
IRAQ AS WE KNOW IT IS GONE.
IRAQ AS WE KNOW IT IS GONE.
JOHN: JOHN, DID YOU WANT IT SAY JOHN: JOHN, DID YOU WANT IT SAY SOMETHING?
SOMETHING?
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE RHETORIC, >> IF YOU LOOK AT THE RHETORIC, VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN TALKING VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN TALKING ABOUT FOLLOWING ISIL TO THE ABOUT FOLLOWING ISIL TO THE GATES OF HELL AND TALK ABOUT GATES OF HELL AND TALK ABOUT DESTROYING ISIL, THIS RHETORIC DESTROYING ISIL, THIS RHETORIC WHICH IS TO ANSWER THE WHICH IS TO ANSWER THE POLITICAL NEED THAT SENDS A POLITICAL NEED THAT SENDS A VENGEANCE THAT HAS COME AFTER VENGEANCE THAT HAS COME AFTER THESE TWO BEHEADINGS IS TO MEET THESE TWO BEHEADINGS IS TO MEET THE RHETORICAL NEED OF THAT THE RHETORICAL NEED OF THAT SENSE OF VENGEANCE BUT ALL THE SENSE OF VENGEANCE BUT ALL THE POLICY WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT POLICY WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IS MUCH SLOWER.
IS MUCH SLOWER.
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED.
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED.
AND THAT'S THIS TENSION THAT'S AND THAT'S THIS TENSION THAT'S HERE.
HERE.
BETWEEN TRYING TO SHOW THAT THE BETWEEN TRYING TO SHOW THAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS DOING SOMETHING.
SOMETHING.
AND THE ACTIONS WHICH WILL NOT AND THE ACTIONS WHICH WILL NOT -- -- JOHN: SO THE WORDS ARE ON THE JOHN: SO THE WORDS ARE ON THE TIP OF THE SKISS AND THE BODY TIP OF THE SKISS AND THE BODY IS BACK?
IS BACK?
>> WAY BACK.
>> WAY BACK.
AND THERE'S JUST -- THAT'S NOT AND THERE'S JUST -- THAT'S NOT GOING TO GET RESOLVED AND YOU GOING TO GET RESOLVED AND YOU HAVE ALL OF THESE DEMOCRATIC HAVE ALL OF THESE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES TRYING TO FEED THAT CANDIDATES TRYING TO FEED THAT ENERGY IN THE PUBLIC.
ENERGY IN THE PUBLIC.
SO THEY'RE SAYING THEY'RE NOT SO THEY'RE SAYING THEY'RE NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH.
MOVING FAST ENOUGH.
THEY'RE NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH.
THEY'RE NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH.
AND THAT -- THAT WEAKENS THE AND THAT -- THAT WEAKENS THE PRESIDENT WHEN HIS OWN TEAM IS PRESIDENT WHEN HIS OWN TEAM IS SAYING THAT.
SAYING THAT.
JOHN: WE'VE GOT TO GET TO A JOHN: WE'VE GOT TO GET TO A SECOND CRISIS FOR THE PRESIDENT SECOND CRISIS FOR THE PRESIDENT AND EUROPEAN LEADERS.
AND EUROPEAN LEADERS.
THAT'S THE INCURSION INTO THAT'S THE INCURSION INTO UKRAINE BY RUSSIAN FIGHTERS AND UKRAINE BY RUSSIAN FIGHTERS AND SEPARATISTS.
SEPARATISTS.
THE COMBATANTS BEGAN A THE COMBATANTS BEGAN A CEASE-FIRE TODAY AND TALK THAT CEASE-FIRE TODAY AND TALK THAT VLADIMIR VLADIMIR PUTIN HAS A PLAN TO LET PARTS PUTIN HAS A PLAN TO LET PARTS OF UKRAINE BREAK AWAY IF THEY OF UKRAINE BREAK AWAY IF THEY CHOOSE.
CHOOSE.
BUT THE NATO LEADERS MEETING IN BUT THE NATO LEADERS MEETING IN WALES THIS WEEK SEE ALL THIS AS WALES THIS WEEK SEE ALL THIS AS A HUGE THREAT TO WESTERN A HUGE THREAT TO WESTERN EUROPE.
EUROPE.
>> RUSSIA IS RIPPING UP THE >> RUSSIA IS RIPPING UP THE RULE BOOK WITH ITS ANNEXATION RULE BOOK WITH ITS ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA.
OF CRIMEA.
AND ITS TROOPS ON SOVEREIGN AND ITS TROOPS ON SOVEREIGN SOIL IN UKRAINE.
SOIL IN UKRAINE.
>> THE UNITY AND THE FIRMNESS >> THE UNITY AND THE FIRMNESS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE TRANSATLANTA HE CAN ALLIANCE IN TRANSATLANTA HE CAN ALLIANCE IN SUPPORTING UKRAINE -- SUPPORTING UKRAINE -- TRANS-ATLANTIC ALLIANCE IN TRANS-ATLANTIC ALLIANCE IN SUPPORTING UKRAINE AND SUPPORTING UKRAINE AND SANCTIONS HAS BEEN A TESTIMONY SANCTIONS HAS BEEN A TESTIMONY TO HOW SERIOUSLY PEOPLE TAKE TO HOW SERIOUSLY PEOPLE TAKE THE BASIC PRINCIPLE THAT BIG THE BASIC PRINCIPLE THAT BIG COUNTRIES CAN'T JUST STOMP ON COUNTRIES CAN'T JUST STOMP ON EMTTLE COUNTRIES OR FORCE TH EMTTLE COUNTRIES OR FORCE TH TO CHANGE THEIR POLICIES.
TO CHANGE THEIR POLICIES.
>> WE ARE BOUND BY AN IRONCLAD >> WE ARE BOUND BY AN IRONCLAD COMMITMENT TO DEFEND ONE COMMITMENT TO DEFEND ONE ANOTHER AGAINST ATTACK.
ANOTHER AGAINST ATTACK.
ALL FOR ONE, ONE FOR ALL.
ALL FOR ONE, ONE FOR ALL.
JOHN: SO DOES THAT MEAN, JOHN: SO DOES THAT MEAN, INDIRA, THAT THE ALLIES BELIEVE INDIRA, THAT THE ALLIES BELIEVE THEY CAN ACTUALLY PUSH RUSSIA THEY CAN ACTUALLY PUSH RUSSIA OUT OF UKRAINE?
OUT OF UKRAINE?
>> LOOK, I MEAN, THIS IS ALL >> LOOK, I MEAN, THIS IS ALL HAPPENING ON THE HEELS TODAY OF HAPPENING ON THE HEELS TODAY OF THIS SUPPOSED CEASE-FIRE THIS SUPPOSED CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT.
AGREEMENT.
AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PLAYS.
PLAYS.
I THINK THAT THE ALLIES ARE I THINK THAT THE ALLIES ARE TRYING TO BE CAREFUL.
TRYING TO BE CAREFUL.
BECAUSE THEY WANT TO MAKE VERY BECAUSE THEY WANT TO MAKE VERY CLEAR TO PUTIN THAT NATO IS CLEAR TO PUTIN THAT NATO IS UNSHABEABLE.
UNSHABEABLE.
ANYONE WHO'S ALREADY IN NATO, ANYONE WHO'S ALREADY IN NATO, UNFORTUNATELY FOR UKRAINE UNFORTUNATELY FOR UKRAINE THEY'RE NOT IN NATO BUT IF IN THEY'RE NOT IN NATO BUT IF IN YOUR NATO DON'T EVEN THINK YOUR NATO DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT PUTIN COMING TO ESTONIA.
ABOUT PUTIN COMING TO ESTONIA.
DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT COMING TO THUALINIA, TO POLAND.
COMING TO THUALINIA, TO POLAND.
DON'T COME TO ANY OF THOSE DON'T COME TO ANY OF THOSE COUNTRIES BECAUSE ARTICLE FIVE COUNTRIES BECAUSE ARTICLE FIVE GETS ENACTED ONE FOR ALL.
GETS ENACTED ONE FOR ALL.
I THINK THE PROBLEM IS THEY I THINK THE PROBLEM IS THEY CAN'T REALLY DEFEND UKRAINE IN CAN'T REALLY DEFEND UKRAINE IN THE WAY THAT UKRAINE WOULD LIKE THE WAY THAT UKRAINE WOULD LIKE AND IN THE WAY IN A A LOT OF AND IN THE WAY IN A A LOT OF POLITICIANS IN -- THAT A LOT OF POLITICIANS IN -- THAT A LOT OF POLITICIANS IN THE U.S. MIGHT POLITICIANS IN THE U.S. MIGHT DO BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT A MEMBER DO BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT A MEMBER OF NATO.
OF NATO.
WE KNOW TODAY THAT THE U.S. AND WE KNOW TODAY THAT THE U.S. AND THE E.U.
HAVE BASICALLY AGREED THE E.U.
HAVE BASICALLY AGREED ON THE NEXT ROUND OF SANCTIONS.
ON THE NEXT ROUND OF SANCTIONS.
THEY'RE GOING TO DEEPEN THEY'RE GOING TO DEEPEN FINANCIAL ENERGY, FINANCIAL ENERGY, DEFENSE-RELATED SANCTIONS.
DEFENSE-RELATED SANCTIONS.
BUT THAT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT BUT THAT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT COULD HAVE COME OUT TODAY COULD HAVE COME OUT TODAY DIDN'T COME OUT.
DIDN'T COME OUT.
WHY?
WHY?
IN PART BECAUSE THE EUROPEANS IN PART BECAUSE THE EUROPEANS ARE MULLING OVER THIS ARE MULLING OVER THIS CEASE-FIRE AND TRYING TO FIGURE CEASE-FIRE AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IS THAT GOING TO WORK?
OUT IS THAT GOING TO WORK?
OR IS PUTIN GOING TO JUST BE OR IS PUTIN GOING TO JUST BE PUSHING THROUGH TO -- FORMING A PUSHING THROUGH TO -- FORMING A BRIDGE STRAIGHT INTO BRIDGE STRAIGHT INTO TRANSNISTREA WHICH A LOT OF TRANSNISTREA WHICH A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IS HIS GOAL.
PEOPLE THINK IS HIS GOAL.
JOHN: DOES THAT MEAN THE JOHN: DOES THAT MEAN THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINE BORDER IS LIKE RUSSIAN-UKRAINE BORDER IS LIKE THE RAG-SYRIA BORDER AND NEVER THE RAG-SYRIA BORDER AND NEVER GOING TO BE THE SAME AGAIN?
GOING TO BE THE SAME AGAIN?
AND IF YOU TAKE WHAT INDIRA AND IF YOU TAKE WHAT INDIRA JUST SAID, YOU COULD ALMOST JUST SAID, YOU COULD ALMOST THINK OF IT AS A STRATEGY OF THINK OF IT AS A STRATEGY OF SAYING YEAH, YOU CAN KEEP SAYING YEAH, YOU CAN KEEP BEATING UP THAT GUY BUT IF YOU BEATING UP THAT GUY BUT IF YOU TRY TO BEAT UP THESE GUYS WE'RE TRY TO BEAT UP THESE GUYS WE'RE REALLY GOING TO GO AFTER YOU.
REALLY GOING TO GO AFTER YOU.
SOUNDS MORE OF A DEFENSIVE AND SOUNDS MORE OF A DEFENSIVE AND A BIT OF A POSE.
A BIT OF A POSE.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH.
AND YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE AND YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE PATTERN HERE.
PATTERN HERE.
PUTIN HAS DONE THIS BEFORE.
PUTIN HAS DONE THIS BEFORE.
EVERY TIME EUROPE IS ABOUT TO EVERY TIME EUROPE IS ABOUT TO ANNOUNCE SOMETHING SERIOUS AND ANNOUNCE SOMETHING SERIOUS AND EVERY TIME EUROPE IS REALLY EVERY TIME EUROPE IS REALLY GETTING ITSELF AGITATED ABOUT GETTING ITSELF AGITATED ABOUT SOMETHING THAT RUSSIA HAS DONE, SOMETHING THAT RUSSIA HAS DONE, PUTIN COMES IN AND HEY, LET'S PUTIN COMES IN AND HEY, LET'S SETTLE THINGS DOWN AND LET'S SETTLE THINGS DOWN AND LET'S HAVE TALKS AND A CEASE-FIRE.
HAVE TALKS AND A CEASE-FIRE.
AND THEN AS SOON AS THE MEETING AND THEN AS SOON AS THE MEETING IS OVER, AS SOON AS EVERYBODY IS OVER, AS SOON AS EVERYBODY GOES BACK TO THEIR CORNERS, GOES BACK TO THEIR CORNERS, SUDDENLY THERE ARE MORE FORCES SUDDENLY THERE ARE MORE FORCES GOING OVER AND MORE FIGHTING GOING OVER AND MORE FIGHTING AND MORE VIOLENCE.
AND MORE VIOLENCE.
AND SO A LOT OF SKEPTICISM AND SO A LOT OF SKEPTICISM THEREFORE THAT THIS IS A -- THEREFORE THAT THIS IS A -- THIS IS SERIOUS AND ANYTHING THIS IS SERIOUS AND ANYTHING MORE THAN A STALLING TACTIC ON MORE THAN A STALLING TACTIC ON HIS PART TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER HIS PART TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER IN EFFECT AS INDIRA WAS SAYING IN EFFECT AS INDIRA WAS SAYING TO PUT OFF ANY SERIOUS MEASURES TO PUT OFF ANY SERIOUS MEASURES AGAINST HIM.
AGAINST HIM.
AND THE LONG TERM, FORECAST IS AND THE LONG TERM, FORECAST IS R THE PLACE IN MILLION DOVEA R THE PLACE IN MILLION DOVEA -- -- SOVIET UNION THAT ARE FROZEN SOVIET UNION THAT ARE FROZEN CONFLICTS AND HAVE BEEN FOR CONFLICTS AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS AND IF IF I'M PRESIDENT OBAMA I'M IF IF I'M PRESIDENT OBAMA I'M LOOKING AT THIS AS THE NEXT TWO LOOKING AT THIS AS THE NEXT TWO YEARS IN MY LIFE BECAUSE IT YEARS IN MY LIFE BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE SOLVED.
WILL NOT BE SOLVED.
>> DOES THIS MEAN THE NATO >> DOES THIS MEAN THE NATO RESPONSE WAS NOT QUITE AS RESPONSE WAS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS WE NAUGHT?
ROBUST AS WE NAUGHT?
PEOPLE CAME OUT OF THIS SESSION PEOPLE CAME OUT OF THIS SESSION SAYING, NEW SPECIAL FORCES THAT SAYING, NEW SPECIAL FORCES THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE READY TO THEY'RE GOING TO BE READY TO DEFEND THE BALTIC STATES.
DEFEND THE BALTIC STATES.
WAS THIS GETTING TOUGH?
WAS THIS GETTING TOUGH?
OR IS THIS SORT OF NATO OR IS THIS SORT OF NATO REALIZING IT'S NOT AS POWERFUL REALIZING IT'S NOT AS POWERFUL AS IT USED TO BE AND TRYING TO AS IT USED TO BE AND TRYING TO ACT THAT WAY?
ACT THAT WAY?
>> THE REMARK YOU JUST MADE IT >> THE REMARK YOU JUST MADE IT SOUNDS LIKE UKRAINE BUT NO SOUNDS LIKE UKRAINE BUT NO FURTHER.
FURTHER.
IS WE'RE DRAWING A LINE.
IS WE'RE DRAWING A LINE.
BUT THAT LINE CEDES WHAT HAS BUT THAT LINE CEDES WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.
ALREADY HAPPENED.
IF YOU DO SOMETHING AGAIN, IF YOU DO SOMETHING AGAIN, FINE.
FINE.
BUT THEY'RE ALLOWING WHAT'S BUT THEY'RE ALLOWING WHAT'S HAPPENED SO FAR.
HAPPENED SO FAR.
JOHN: HASN'T THIS HAPPENED JOHN: HASN'T THIS HAPPENED PROGRESSIVELY?
PROGRESSIVELY?
THEY FIRST CEDED CRIMEA.
THEY FIRST CEDED CRIMEA.
>> THEY NEVER ADMIT THAT.
>> THEY NEVER ADMIT THAT.
THEY WOULD NEVER ADMIT THAT THEY WOULD NEVER ADMIT THAT THEY -- THAT WE'RE GOING TO THEY -- THAT WE'RE GOING TO ALLOW -- ALLOW -- JOHN: BUT IN EFFECT THEY HAVE.
JOHN: BUT IN EFFECT THEY HAVE.
WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THAT?
WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THAT?
NOBODY IS INTENDING PUT BOOTS NOBODY IS INTENDING PUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE.
ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE.
SO DOES THIS MEAN THAT PUTIN IS SO DOES THIS MEAN THAT PUTIN IS THE GUY WHO'S WILLING TO DO IT THE GUY WHO'S WILLING TO DO IT AND WE'RE NOT?
AND WE'RE NOT?
HE'S GOING TO WIN?
HE'S GOING TO WIN?
OR GET WHAT HE WANTS IF NOT OR GET WHAT HE WANTS IF NOT WIN?
WIN?
>> A DELIBERATIVE PROCESS HE >> A DELIBERATIVE PROCESS HE POKES AND PRODUCTS AND SEES POKES AND PRODUCTS AND SEES WHAT THE RESPONSE IS AND POKES WHAT THE RESPONSE IS AND POKES AND PRODUCTS AGAIN.
AND PRODUCTS AGAIN.
THE PIECES OF GEORGIA HE TOOK THE PIECES OF GEORGIA HE TOOK AND A WALL BEING BUILT ABOUT IT AND A WALL BEING BUILT ABOUT IT AND NOT GOING BACK.
AND NOT GOING BACK.
WHEN HE CONQUERED CRIMEA THE WHEN HE CONQUERED CRIMEA THE RED LINE AND NO FURTHER.
RED LINE AND NO FURTHER.
NOW HE'S MOVED INTO THE EAST.
NOW HE'S MOVED INTO THE EAST.
HE WAITED UNTIL -- REMEMBER, IT HE WAITED UNTIL -- REMEMBER, IT WASN'T THAT LONG AGO THAT WE WASN'T THAT LONG AGO THAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE PLANE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE PLANE FULL OF 300 INNOCENT PEOPLE FULL OF 300 INNOCENT PEOPLE SHOT DOWN WITH RUSSIAN WEAPONRY SHOT DOWN WITH RUSSIAN WEAPONRY OVER EASTERN UKRAINE.
OVER EASTERN UKRAINE.
THAT WAS GOING TO BE THE RED THAT WAS GOING TO BE THE RED LINE AND THAT CAME AND WENT AND LINE AND THAT CAME AND WENT AND MOVED DEEPER INTO UKRAINE AND MOVED DEEPER INTO UKRAINE AND TALKED ABOUT CONQUERING KIEV IN TALKED ABOUT CONQUERING KIEV IN A MATTER OF WEEKS AND COMING ON A MATTER OF WEEKS AND COMING ON WITHOUT MUCH RESPONSE.
WITHOUT MUCH RESPONSE.
A DETAIL ABOUT THIS RAPID A DETAIL ABOUT THIS RAPID REACTION FORCE AND PRESIDENT REACTION FORCE AND PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS ASKED ABOUT IT AND OBAMA WAS ASKED ABOUT IT AND DODGED THE QUESTION, OUR DODGED THE QUESTION, OUR AMERICAN TROOPS, WILL THEY BE AMERICAN TROOPS, WILL THEY BE PART OF IT?
PART OF IT?
SO FAR HE HAS NOT SAID THEY SO FAR HE HAS NOT SAID THEY WILL BE.
WILL BE.
SO NATO WHICH NEVER MOVES MUSTE SO NATO WHICH NEVER MOVES MUSTE POWERFUL ARMIES, AND MOST POWERFUL ARMIES, AND MOST POWERFUL ARMY THAT EXISTS IS POWERFUL ARMY THAT EXISTS IS THE UNITED STATES.
THE UNITED STATES.
AS OF NOW THERE'S NO U.S. AS OF NOW THERE'S NO U.S.
TROOPS IN THAT RAPID REACTION TROOPS IN THAT RAPID REACTION FORCE.
FORCE.
SO EVEN THE THINGS THAT NATO IS SO EVEN THE THINGS THAT NATO IS POINTING TO AS A NEW SIGN OF POINTING TO AS A NEW SIGN OF CHESS POUNDING, THIS IS ALL CHESS POUNDING, THIS IS ALL WE'RE GOING TO DO IS LESS THAN WE'RE GOING TO DO IS LESS THAN MEETS THE EYE.
MEETS THE EYE.
JOHN: PETER, YOU'VE WORKED IN JOHN: PETER, YOU'VE WORKED IN MOSCOW AS A CORRESPONDENT, A MOSCOW AS A CORRESPONDENT, A LINE OF ANALYSIS THAT CAME OUT LINE OF ANALYSIS THAT CAME OUT OF THE ORIGINAL RUSSIAN ACTION OF THE ORIGINAL RUSSIAN ACTION THAT SAID OH, WOW.
THAT SAID OH, WOW.
PUTIN HAS SWALLOWED A HUGE PUTIN HAS SWALLOWED A HUGE BASKETBALL.
BASKETBALL.
AND HE DOESN'T WANT THAT.
AND HE DOESN'T WANT THAT.
HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO SPIT IT HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO SPIT IT UP AT SOME POINT.
UP AT SOME POINT.
IT'S GOING TO BE TOO EXPENSIVE IT'S GOING TO BE TOO EXPENSIVE AND COSTLY.
AND COSTLY.
AND HE DOESN'T WANT TO DEAL AND HE DOESN'T WANT TO DEAL WITH THAT.
WITH THAT.
IS THAT ST NJUOT GOING TO IS THAT ST NJUOT GOING TO HAPPEN?
HAPPEN?
THAT HE IN FACT DOES WANT THIS?
THAT HE IN FACT DOES WANT THIS?
AND HE'S WILLING TO PAY THE AND HE'S WILLING TO PAY THE PRICE OF WHATEVER SANCTIONS PRICE OF WHATEVER SANCTIONS THAT EUROPE AND THE UNITED THAT EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES ARAL TO PUT ON HIM?
STATES ARAL TO PUT ON HIM?
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH.
WE KEEP TRYING TO ANALYZE PUTIN WE KEEP TRYING TO ANALYZE PUTIN THROUGH OUR OWN LENS.
THROUGH OUR OWN LENS.
IF WE WERE IN HIS POSITION, IF WE WERE IN HIS POSITION, THIS WOULD BE THE THING THAT THIS WOULD BE THE THING THAT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO US, THIS WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO US, THIS WOULD BE THE FACTOR THAT WOULD WOULD BE THE FACTOR THAT WOULD DRIVE OUR DECISIONS.
DRIVE OUR DECISIONS.
AND JUST NOT OUR WAY OF AND JUST NOT OUR WAY OF THINKING.
THINKING.
HE THINKS IN A DIFFERENT WAY.
HE THINKS IN A DIFFERENT WAY.
HE DOES THINK IN ZERO SUM WAYS.
HE DOES THINK IN ZERO SUM WAYS.
HE DOES HAVE A DIFFERENT SET OF HE DOES HAVE A DIFFERENT SET OF CALCULATIONS.
CALCULATIONS.
HIS NUMBERS AT HOME ARE 80%.
HIS NUMBERS AT HOME ARE 80%.
THIS IS A GOOD THING FOR HIM.
THIS IS A GOOD THING FOR HIM.
HE CONTROLS THE MEDIA.
HE CONTROLS THE MEDIA.
IN RUSSIA.
IN RUSSIA.
AND SO HE DOES NOT -- AND AND SO HE DOES NOT -- AND RUSSIANS ARE PREPARED TO PAY A RUSSIANS ARE PREPARED TO PAY A PRICE.
PRICE.
AND CERTAINLY HE IS.
AND CERTAINLY HE IS.
AND THEY HAVE TAKEN A MEASURE AND THEY HAVE TAKEN A MEASURE OF THE WEST AND THINK THAT OF THE WEST AND THINK THAT THERE'S PLACES THEY CAN PUSH, THERE'S PLACES THEY CAN PUSH, RIGHT?
RIGHT?
THEY'RE NUDGING, NUDGING, THEY'RE NUDGING, NUDGING, NUDGING AND LOOKING WHERE THOSE NUDGING AND LOOKING WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES ARE AND NOT GO TOO BOUNDARIES ARE AND NOT GO TOO FAR AND NOT TAKE GENUINE PAIN FAR AND NOT TAKE GENUINE PAIN BUT HE THINKS HE CAN GET AWAY BUT HE THINKS HE CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT MORE.
WITH A LOT MORE.
JOHN: JOHN, AS YOU THINK ABOUT JOHN: JOHN, AS YOU THINK ABOUT THIS POLITICALLY, AMERICANS THIS POLITICALLY, AMERICANS GREW UP ALL OF US TODAY WITH A GREW UP ALL OF US TODAY WITH A COLD WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED COLD WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION.
STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION.
IS THAT SO FAR A MEMORY NOW IS THAT SO FAR A MEMORY NOW THAT THE FOCUS OF THE AMERICAN THAT THE FOCUS OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH PUBLIC IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MORE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THIS MIDDLE EAST AS OPPOSED TO THIS CRISIS IN UKRAINE?
CRISIS IN UKRAINE?
IS THAT LIKE YESTERDAY'S ISSUE IS THAT LIKE YESTERDAY'S ISSUE AND PEOPLE AREN'T PAYING SO AND PEOPLE AREN'T PAYING SO MUCH ATTENTION?
MUCH ATTENTION?
>> IT'S HARD TO TELL.
>> IT'S HARD TO TELL.
YOU -- IF YOU LOOK AT THE YOU -- IF YOU LOOK AT THE CONSERVATIVE CRITIQUE OF THE CONSERVATIVE CRITIQUE OF THE PRESIDENT THEY GO BACK TO MITT PRESIDENT THEY GO BACK TO MITT ROMNEY'S COMMENT ABOUT RUSSIA ROMNEY'S COMMENT ABOUT RUSSIA BEING THE GREAT STRATEGIC BEING THE GREAT STRATEGIC THREAT AS A WAY OF ARGUING THAT THREAT AS A WAY OF ARGUING THAT THIS PRESIDENT IS IN OVER HIS THIS PRESIDENT IS IN OVER HIS HEAD AND THAT MITT ROMNEY WAS HEAD AND THAT MITT ROMNEY WAS RIGHT.
RIGHT.
THEY USE AS A RHETORICAL THEY USE AS A RHETORICAL POLITICAL POINT SCORING METHOD POLITICAL POINT SCORING METHOD THEY USURIOUSIA.
THEY USURIOUSIA.
AND WE ARE BACK TO IF YOU THINK AND WE ARE BACK TO IF YOU THINK OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS AS OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS AS TRYING TO CORRECT THE TRYING TO CORRECT THE INADEQUACIES OF THE EXISTING INADEQUACIES OF THE EXISTING PRESIDENT, BARACK OBAMA WAS PRESIDENT, BARACK OBAMA WAS ELECTED BECAUSE HE WAS GOING TO ELECTED BECAUSE HE WAS GOING TO BE SMART AND BUILD COALITIONS BE SMART AND BUILD COALITIONS AND COSM TO SOMEBODY WITH PUTIN AND COSM TO SOMEBODY WITH PUTIN AND REASON WITH HIM AND MAYBE AND REASON WITH HIM AND MAYBE BE A LITTLE TOUGH BUT NOT THE BE A LITTLE TOUGH BUT NOT THE BLUSTERY GEORGE BUSH.
BLUSTERY GEORGE BUSH.
NOW BARACK OBAMA AND THE NOW BARACK OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS WHO ARE NOW DEMOCRATS WHO ARE NOW CRITICIZING HIM ARE CREATING AN CRITICIZING HIM ARE CREATING AN APPETITE FOR SOME KIND OF APPETITE FOR SOME KIND OF PRESIDENT WHO CAN BEAR -- BARE PRESIDENT WHO CAN BEAR -- BARE THEIR CHEST AND REPLACE NATO THEIR CHEST AND REPLACE NATO WHO CANTERBURY THEIR CHEST OR WHO CANTERBURY THEIR CHEST OR BEAT ITS CHEST AND PUTIN WHO BEAT ITS CHEST AND PUTIN WHO DOES THE CHEST BARING, AND A DOES THE CHEST BARING, AND A PRESIDENT WHO HAS THAT KIND OF PRESIDENT WHO HAS THAT KIND OF MORE STRONG MAN BEHAVIOR THAT MORE STRONG MAN BEHAVIOR THAT WE USED TO ASSOCIATE WITH THE WE USED TO ASSOCIATE WITH THE KIND OF REPUBLICANS.
KIND OF REPUBLICANS.
JOHN: INDIRA, AS YOU THINK JOHN: INDIRA, AS YOU THINK ABOUT THIS, AND QUICKLY, DO YOU ABOUT THIS, AND QUICKLY, DO YOU THINK OF WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT THINK OF WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT NOW AS A FUNCTION OF THE NOW AS A FUNCTION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OR LACK OF IT OF EFFECTIVENESS OR LACK OF IT OF OBAMA'S FOREIGN POLICY OR IS IT OBAMA'S FOREIGN POLICY OR IS IT ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD IS ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD IS POST-COLD WAR?
POST-COLD WAR?
>> I THINK IT'S PARTLY THE WAY >> I THINK IT'S PARTLY THE WAY THE WORLD IS POST-WAR.
THE WORLD IS POST-WAR.
AND THE WAY THAT PUTIN IS AND THE WAY THAT PUTIN IS INCREDIBLY CANNY.
INCREDIBLY CANNY.
AND HE KNOWS EXACTLY HOW TO AND HE KNOWS EXACTLY HOW TO WALK UP TO THE LINE, PUSH WALK UP TO THE LINE, PUSH THROUGH IT.
THROUGH IT.
AND THEN STEP BACK WITH ONE AND THEN STEP BACK WITH ONE LITTLE PINKIE TOE.
LITTLE PINKIE TOE.
BUT I DO WANT IT SAY IN THE BUT I DO WANT IT SAY IN THE LONG RUN I THINK SANCTIONS ARE LONG RUN I THINK SANCTIONS ARE GOING TO BE HURTING PUTIN GOING TO BE HURTING PUTIN WHETHER HE LIKES IT OR NOT, WHETHER HE LIKES IT OR NOT, PARTICULARLY IN THE ENERGY PARTICULARLY IN THE ENERGY SECTOR.
SECTOR.
JOHN: THANKS, EVERYBODY.
JOHN: THANKS, EVERYBODY.
GREAT DISCUSSION.
GREAT DISCUSSION.
THAT WILL WRAP IT UP FOR THAT WILL WRAP IT UP FOR TONIGHT.
TONIGHT.
THE CONVERSATION CONTINUES THE CONVERSATION CONTINUES ONLINE WHERE WE DRILL DOWN ON ONLINE WHERE WE DRILL DOWN ON THE BIGGEST STORY WE DIDN'T THE BIGGEST STORY WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TIME FOR IN THE LAST EVEN HAVE TIME FOR IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES, FELONY CONVICTIONS 30 MINUTES, FELONY CONVICTIONS THAT COMPLETED A STUNNING FALL THAT COMPLETED A STUNNING FALL FOR FORMER VIRGINIA GOVERNOR FOR FORMER VIRGINIA GOVERNOR BOB MCDONNELL.
BOB MCDONNELL.
THAT'S IN OUR WEBCAST EXTRA THAT'S IN OUR WEBCAST EXTRA WHICH STREAMS LIVE BEGINNING AT WHICH STREAMS LIVE BEGINNING AT 8:30 P.M. ALL WEEKEND LONG AT 8:30 P.M. ALL WEEKEND LONG AT PBS.ORG/WASHINGTONWEEK.
PBS.ORG/WASHINGTONWEEK.
I'M JOHN HARWOOD.
I'M JOHN HARWOOD.
GWEN WILL BE BACK AROUND THE GWEN WILL BE BACK AROUND THE TABLE NEXT WEEK ON "WASHINGTON TABLE NEXT WEEK ON "WASHINGTON WEEK."
WEEK."
GOOD NIGHT.
